In a new study published in the journal Global Change Biology, Rutgers Assistant Professor Jeremy Cohen and colleagues found that accounting for variable and extreme weather is critical when predicting distributional and biodiversity patterns because this weather limits where birds can exist. The study was conducted across 535 bird species in the US and Canada, including both their summer and winter ranges.
Leveraging data from the participatory science initiative eBird, managed by the Cornell lab of Ornithology, they found that the distributions for many species were smaller (on average 6-10%) with extreme and variability weather included, especially at the range edges, than when this information was excluded.
Biodiversity predictions were more accurate with variability/extreme weather included, and models without this information greatly overpredicted biodiversity in regions prone to volatile weather, the great plains and southwest.
Precise models of bird ranges in the US and Canada are essential for conservation efforts to have the best information possible for successfully preserving biodiversity. Understanding how extreme and variable weather influences where species occur is increasingly important as extreme weather becomes more common under climate change.
Support for the research came from NASA grants and the E.O. Wilson Biodiversity Foundation in furtherance of the Half-Earth Project.
